Champions League, EPL and FA Cup Selections (Writeups included)

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Taken some time off relocating and refocusing all of my efforts on a new investment. Now that I'm finally starting to settle, I will have more time to provide my expertise in this field, full time. I do want to say thank you to all those people that have put equal if not more effort than me in guiding us to this point. I truly believe everyone directly and indirectly have put a lot of people in a desirable position. To all those lurking, enjoy the ride. It should be a fun one.

P.S. If you want to know more about the upcoming adventures send me a PM.

Soccer is a sport I've done considerably well with, even when the time wasn't there. Now past success doesn't equal success so lets keeps things in perspective. Profit is what I aim to do, no goals or limitation, just win.

GL
 
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The max wager is 1% of the bankroll for the season. If you tail please adjust correctly, if you want this explained more send me a PM, simply don't want to clog the threads with too much information.

Champions League:

.04* Juventus U1 -130 1H
.02* Juventus U0.5, 1 +122 1h
.10* Juventus U2, 2.5 -109
.02* Juventus U2 +136
.08* Juventus ML -121



Celtic (Home) vs Juventus (Road): Wanted to specify the order of how Europe documents home teams. Its always the prior and not the latter. Always found that a bit odd due to my bias, so this a lesson to North America.

Celtic has probably one of the most together clubs in Europe, like Xavi once uttered: "Celtic and Barcelona are more than football, its a symbol of culture and community.." . Not only the players, coaches, investors but most importantly the fans, heck even Snoop Dog was impressed (see Snoop buying Celtic). There is no mystery that Celtic is the class of Ireland and should continue to be for sometime. Also as of recent Celtic has shown considerable class offshore as well. Their display against Barcelona was in many ways a proof of fiction. We have the desirable dog vs public road team scenario. Many times here the sharp sides with the dog due to portfolio, spot and seemingly value. It's probably one of the most daunting positions, when your truth lies in the opposition of contrarian.

Juventus, the class of Italy, specifically the upstart boot club which typically plays second fiddle to Milan has shown great strength on and off the field. With many subtle yet unsettling controversies this team has remained the prize of Italy. Pirlo, the ageless magician continues to hide in midfield and navigate passes to forthcoming gifted strikers. The defense is startling Italian, with elegance and proper form they are not grandmas handbag. They are tough to take down.

If you haven't watched a Celtic game, this is the one you may want to start with. The atmosphere alone is worth the price of time. Make no mistake my investments are small and rather diligent due to the uncertainty of these epic encounters. For the novice, these games represent the best clubs of all the leagues in Europe. Unlike in American Football, this sport has leagues of 20 teams in practically every nation in Europe. The best organization in Ireland will match their 11 vs the best Italy has.

Conclusion: Unlike Barcelona this Italian side handles Celtic style attacks well. Game should be close, packed with emotion and I suspect the winner will be the more fortunate side. I simply prefer the quality and match up in styles here.


.04* Valencia U1 -130 1H
.02* Valencia U0.5, 1 +113 1h
.10* Valencia U2, 2.5 -110
.02* Valencia U2 +126
.10* PSG PK, +0.5 -118

PSG has now become the new spending power of Europe, as some others are surfacing naturally. Like Chelsea, City and even Madrid before them this Parisian side is full of class now with the expense of paper. Valencia is a team that carries the distinction of being the 3rd and 4th fiddle team in a unstack Spanish Division. Respect is usually hard to come by in for this Southern Spain club in these stages and deservedly so. History doesn't reflect well here, having said that I've proceeded with caution.

Valencia is typically well structured with strong backs, good balance and desire. The attack should show some advance here, midfield and flanks will balance possession.

The Paris based club will be enduring heavy pressure here and sense struggles early, think fortitude and physical ability should withhold well. Midfield should be well fought, more times than not the lesser should prevail.

Occasional simple think will be the difference here, Valencia will be confined and properly satisfied with the feed while PSG lurks ever so boastfully with Europe's eyes gazing.


A pleasure start to journey of THE TOURNEY, gl men.
 

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Enjoyed the write-ups VOR, thanks for letting me know you were starting this. I'm a very sporadic soccer better but it is one of my favorite sports to watch. Good luck today my friend.
 
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BOL VOR, i now see what you meant about being conservative in your betting style :D

Plays go from .02-.50% for now =] I'm currently not exceeding .50% on any given play due to lack of time to cap. Even at these numbers I can get up to over 4% of my bankroll being wagered one day. Soon enough I'll start investing the amounts expected of me =D
 
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Review: 2-2 -0.141

Both games went as I thought they would for the most part, the Scots club were simply outclassed and PSG showed they are the new bully on the block.

Juventus clinical performance was a thing of marvel. The overall discipline shown by the Italians early on was key here. Celtic was able to pressure due to a coaching error by Contes (something I'll get to in a second), the difference here was Celtic simply didn't have the final touch on several occasions and couldn't break down their counterpart enough. An early precise strike by Marti was a sign of later times.
Contes later corrected the mistake of allowing Pirlo to roam without purpose by dropping Vucinic in defense. As a result tempo was dictated by the Italians completely and when they squeezed enough they drew blood one too many times for my convenience.

Valencia had a whopping 65% possession time, I did mention that we should anticipate much of this but I think not many suspected this wide of a gap. Valencia attack was not dynamic enough for this Parisian team, quality coaching and dedication was evident here by a team which believes they can win no matter the situation. The revelation today is Lucas Moura, the Brazilian class was even more noticeable than Ibra, his runs displayed why this team has enough horses to be a contender in the grand scheme of things. I do have some concerns against higher possession teams, I see a growing theme here.
 
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First of all I don't proofread any of my writings, don't have the time.

We are entering the 2nd day the round of 16. With a clash that's highly anticipated, heck even Gus Johnson himself will be calling or should I say yelling at the game. Maybe he will wear white to match Santiago Bernabéu. Needless to say most of focus will be on this one so I'll address it a little more profoundly.

Leans: Madrid/Under

I've not decided on anything here until I see what both of these teams M.O. will be. Based on the lineups this will become clear to the author. Both teams are stacked and can attack in myriad of ways. I personally prefer the midfield for Madrid here, they offer more dynamic play makers.
Another thing of note is Madrid has had its eyes set on the Champions for sometime now, United has just recently been put in a position to focus on the game as its most important goal left. As a result Mourniho aka "chosen one" has tinkered with plenty of trail and error lineups leading to this game. Will he use a high line via possession players or counter with strong holders and flank attacks. These questions and more will be answered soon enough.

Lean: Donetsk/Under

Shakhtar Donetsk vs Borussia Dortmund will be a game playing second fiddle today in terms of viewership but make no mistake these are class clubs. Dortmund showcases more of a complete football approach while Donetsk also posses stellar play makers and deadly finishers. Waiting on the confirmation of the availability of a couple players here.

Stay tuned.
 
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Lineups are in, seems Ferguson is going with a unique 5-2-2-1 formation, only 2 legit midfielders with Rooney and Welbeck helping with runs and RVP awaiting in a good chances. Seems like a chess game to me:

.10* Real Madrid U3, 3.5 -133
.04* Real Madrid -0.5 -177

Sitting the other game out and finding out more for the next meeting.
 
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Well a decent 1-1 day. Real M U3 was pretty strong.
I saw the Dortmund game, some real nice goals there. I think its quite interesting that you decide to play CL. Isnt it tough to get any idea of how teams match up against each other here instead of the national leagues?

Decent I suppose, Madrid dominates 61% possession, more than doubles the shot output (28 vs 13) but was unable to put the game away largely to the stellar play of De Gea. Spain's goalie of the future. Lets give credit to Sir Alex here, he came in with a plan and it worked. Welbeck gave them the finish and defense held well for the most part.

Nico in large part my investments are small due to the level of uncertainty going into these games. I base my wagers on styles (which is dictated at times by formations like today), overall talent, spots and match ups. You will see more action on the weekends with me unless I see a huge edge naturally. You also won't see me forcing or going crazy on any given game so if your looking for lightning in a bottle, I'm not that guy =D
 
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Review: 3-3 -0.1295

We knew what Real would do, as for United they mirrored a similar formation vs Tottenham, shadowing a star with Phil Jones. To their credit it worked, containing Ronaldo wasn't easy but Jones did an admirable job. The rest of field was clogged up by dropping Rooney, Welbeck and Carrick and creating a two tier barrier of sorts. They did let the occasional blast from solid isolation players....in this case mostly Di Maria and a small sprinkle from Ronaldo.
United on offense were able to muster a timely early goal off the corner and pretty much sit back the rest the way.
The man of the match was De Gea, his best efforts came in the form two saves which entertained the imagination.

Donetsk was opportunistic while Dormund relatively dominated in the other match. Dormund simply had the more able side in the middle and I don't see anything changing in their next meeting.
 
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Taking a shot here with my first ever German league play, love this spot:

.04* Wolfsburg +1, +1.5 -109
.02* Wolfsburg +1 +128
.03* Wolfsburg O2.5, 3 -112
 
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Well no more jabbing, tournament play is mostly for kicks and giggles. Now we move forward with a 3 tier strength system. Plays will be rated: 1*, .50* and .25* respectively. This reflects the percent played of the bankroll on each investment. GL

Review: 3-5 -0.2267

Saturday


Arsenal -1.5 -124 1*
Arsenal O3, 3.5 -114 1*
Everton -1, -1.5 -135 .25*
Everton -1.5 -104 .25*
Everton O2.5, 3 -125 .25*
Everton O3 -107 .25*
Roma PK, +0.5 +106 .25*
Roma Under 2.5, 3 -105 .25*

See a few good spots here, also sense Arsenal and Everton will display their muscle while Juventus is caught in a tough spot against a gritty Roma team.

Sunday

.50* Wigan PK, -0.5 -115.
.50* Wigan U2.5 -110
.25* Madrid -2 -120
.25* Madrid O3.5, 4 -126
.25* Chelsea -2, -2.5 -114
.15* Chelsea Over 3.5 -124
.10* Chelsea Over 3.5/4 +102

Going to wait on lineups for the Liverpool game on Sunday.

Monday


Also going to wait for lineups with Man U, guess you have to with the old wise one.
 
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Sunday Add

.15* Liverpool -1, -1.5 -122
.10* Liverpool -1 -170
.15* Liverpool O2.5 -135
.10* Liverpool O2,5, 3 -109

Figured I jump on Liverpool in this spot, hoping they can start reversing the regression vs a battered Swansea team.
 

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Sunday Add

.15* Liverpool -1, -1.5 -122
.10* Liverpool -1 -170
.15* Liverpool O2.5 -135
.10* Liverpool O2,5, 3 -109

Figured I jump on Liverpool in this spot, hoping they can start reversing the regression vs a battered Swansea team.

VOR,

Good to see you around again. I hope all is well with you and yours.

GL with your action.
 

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